evaluation of civil order phenomenon management based on designing variables measuring level of system effectiveness and its application in modern approach to crisis management

today, “civil order” may be regarded as one of the most important “functional requirements” (fr) of any city, as a real, complex, large-scale system. in this regard, learning about dynamic behavior of the civil order phenomenon and analysis of all information obtained from “operational environment” associated with the system of interest may be considered an essential step in the process of “crisis management” for mega-cities. for this reason, the present study aims to develop a way for evaluating the effectiveness level of civil order management system by establishing a set of quantitative variables, based on which we can eventually obtain the probability of successfully meeting each of the root-frs, which is basically required to manage the civil order phenomenon behavior in the system (city) of interest. to verify the practical capability of the presented method, this study, as an analytical-descriptive research, focuses on a population, which consists of “tehran’s police chief dep.”, “tehran’s municipality org.”, “tehran’s emergency medical services org.”, and “public media (tv, radio, and presses)”, from which, finally,  140 participants are randomly drawn using “stratified sampling method” to be inquired. library studies, face-to-face/telephone interviews, and researcher–made questionnaires are all three ways specifically used for gathering all required data and information. this study considers learning of changes in probability of successfully fulfilling each of the system root-frs to be a sound basis for effective management of civil order phenomenon.